(Adds Romanian consultancy)
PARIS, June 14 (Reuters) – Agritel has cut by 15% its
forecast for this year’s wheat harvest in Romania after a dry
May strained crops in one of the European Union’s biggest grain
producers, the consultancy said.
Following a field tour last month, Agritel lowered its
outlook for the wheat crop to 8.76 million tonnes from 10.35
million projected in April, now below an estimated 9.2 million
in last year’s drought-affected harvest, it said in a note.
«Findings showed that drought set in while winter wheat was
still at a vulnerable stage in its development, with the
flowering and grain-filling period both impacted,» Agritel, the
agriculture analytics arm of commodity data firm Argus, said.
After falling to a near two-year low in May, European wheat
prices have rebounded this month as dry weather and war
disruption in Ukraine have rekindled supply concerns.
Agritel’s revised outlook for Romania’s wheat crop was lower
than other forecasts, including 9.57 million tonnes estimated by
grain trade association Coceral in EU forecasts this week.
In Romania, Cezar Gheorghe of consultancy AGRIColumn said
his estimate remained unchanged at 10.5 million tonnes of wheat
this year, while his estimates for barley and rapeseed crops
rose to 2 million tones each.
Harvest prospects in Romania have taken on additional
significance as it is one of five eastern EU countries that saw
an influx of Ukrainian grain since Russia’s invasion, leading
the EU to approve temporary trade restrictions.
Gheorghe said he estimated Romania will have up to 21
million tonnes of grains and oilseeds available to export in the
2023/2024 season, down from an earlier estimate of 23 million.
«As Ukrainian grain export restrictions to Romania remain in
place, Romanian farmers may sell more domestically,» Gheorghe
told Reuters.
Agritel’s wheat production view was based on a projected
yield of 4.05 hectares per tonne, 12% below an adjusted
five-year average, and an estimated crop area of 2.17 million
hectares, slightly below last year’s.
The updated forecast, released to clients at the end of May,
assumed weather conditions would not improve before harvesting
in early July, Agritel said.
Winter barley and rapeseed in Romania were not expected to
be significantly affected by recent dryness as they develop
earlier than wheat, with 2023 yields seen at an average level,
it said.
Corn could be at risk given planting delays this spring and
low moisture reserves, but there was still time in its cycle for
conditions to improve, Agritel added.
(Reporting by Gus Trompiz; Additional reporting by Luiza Ilie;
editing by David Evans)